嘉    宾：杨晨颖 助理教授 新加坡管理大学

主持人：薛沁舒 助理教授 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院

时    间：2024年11月20日（周三）14:00-15:30

地    点:  上海交通大学徐汇校区安泰经济与管理学院A511

内容简介：

Many countries have set ambitious targets for transitioning away from fossil fuels. The plans generally involve switching from combustion engines to electric vehicles (EVs). As batteries constitute around 40% of the cost of EVs, firms need to establish low-cost battery supply chains in order to make EVs attractive to consumers. At the same time, governments increasingly use tax and subsidy schemes to induce firms to locate more stages of the supply chain within their jurisdictions. We specify a multi-stage supply chain for EVs from battery cell production to vehicle distribution. Each car producer selects where to open facilities at each stage considering production costs, transport costs, tariffs and subsidies. This is a difficult combinatorial choice problem that cannot be solved using existing "pruning" algorithms that have been used in the recent literature analyzing global supply chain location choices. Instead, we leverage a mixed integer linear program formulation that drastically reduces computation times. We estimate the parameters of our model---which include the variable production costs and fixed plant/model activation costs---using observed sourcing decisions for all production stages over the period 2021 to 2023.  We then investigate counterfactual simulations for different types of industrial and trade policies and describe how those affect the production location choices across the global chains for EVs and the trade patterns from battery through assembly to final consumption destinations.

演讲人简介： 

Dr. Yang is an assistant professor in the School of Economics at the Singapore Management University. Her research interests include international trade, industrial organization, and economic geography, with a particular focus on decisions of multinational firms. Before joining SMU, she received a Ph.D. in Strategy and Business Economics at the University of British Columbia.