题    目：Technology Rivalry and Resilience Under Trade Disruptions: The Case of Semiconductor Foundries

嘉    宾： 缪炜婷 PhD. Candidate 杜克大学

主持人： 喻    洋 副教授 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院

时    间：2024 年 12 月 30 日（周一）14:00-15:30

地    点：上海交通大学徐汇校区安泰经济与管理学院A507

内容简介：

This paper studies the impact of industrial policies on technology competition and consumer welfare amid rising global trade disruption risks. Distilling key empirical features from novel data on the semiconductor foundry industry, I develop and estimate a dynamic oligopoly model that integrates step-by-step innovation, trade disruption risk, and industrial policies. While distortions from market power and technological externalities justify subsidies, their optimal levels depend on the magnitude of trade disruption risk: when the risk is low, the optimal subsidy rate remains low, as the welfare benefits are distributed globally, but the costs are borne exclusively by the subsidizing government. My quantitative model shows that a 35% trade disruption risk makes the 25% investment subsidy under the U.S. CHIPS Act optimal, resulting in a 6% welfare improvement for the U.S. The paper also analyzes the CHIPS Act’s restrictions on investments in rival countries, intended to secure technological leadership against their firms. Its efficacy depends on the strength of technology spillover restrictions and the scale of the rival home market secured for rival firms.

演讲人简介：
Weiting Miao is a Ph.D. candidate in Economics at Duke University. Her research focuses on the intersection of international trade and industrial organization. She uses large-scale micro-data and structural models to study firm behavior, with a focus on innovation and the effects of industrial, trade, and environmental policies.