题    目：The Costs of Leader Biases: Evidence from Superstitious Chinese Mayors

嘉    宾：洪佶豪 PhD. Candidate 波士顿大学

主持人： 喻    洋 副教授 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院

时    间：2025年1月10日（周五）14:00-15:30 

地    点：上海交通大学徐汇校区安泰经济与管理学院A403

内容简介：
Subjective and non-factual beliefs influence human decision-making, including key individuals that wield considerable economic and political power. In this paper, we document the substantial macro-level impact of leaders' non-factual beliefs in China, exploiting prevalent Asian traditional beliefs that allow us to link quasi-random, leader-specific spatial biases to regional development within cities. We find that municipal zones perceived as unfavorable to mayors (i.e., subject to mayors' over-pessimism)  have an average 2 percent lower GDP compared to other zones. Exploiting mayoral reports and administrative micro-level data, we show reduced policy support and public investment as the key drivers. Downstream changes in firms and households further amplify the loss, with a 6% decrease in firm entry, a 4% reduction in the productivity of remaining firms, and a small population decline. Our back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests Chinese mayors' spatial misbeliefs are associated with at least a 0.1% annual GDP loss over the past two decades. Overall, our findings highlight subjective beliefs as an important determinant of leader performance, contributing to a broader understanding of why leaders matter for economic development.

演讲人简介：
Justin is a Ph.D. candidate in Economics at Boston University. He studies the personnel and organizational economics of the state and their impact on economic development, with a regional focus on China. He has published in JEBO, and his solo works are under revision at JDE and JoLE.