嘉    宾： 陈思好 助理教授 香港浸会大学

主持人： 徐    玏 助理教授 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院  

时    间： 2025年4月30日（周三）14:00-15:30

地    点:  上海交通大学徐汇校区安泰经济与管理学院A511

内容简介：

This paper aims to disentangle the intricate interaction between global and local uncertainties in driving the business cycles of small open economies (SOEs).  With structurally motivated local projection estimations, we estimate impulse response functions of macroeconomic variables to global and local uncertainty shocks under weak identification assumptions. We consider global shocks as exogenous to SOEs and identify local shocks using local disasters and granular shocks. Our findings show that global and local shocks are significantly different. Global shocks are found to be aggregate demand shocks, whereas local shocks are aggregate supply shocks. A goods market search model is developed to address this difference.

演讲人简介：

Chen Sihao is currently an Assistant Professor at the School of Business at Hong Kong Baptist University. He earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology in 2019 and then worked at Fudan University's School of Economics before 2024. His research focuses on international macroeconomics, with a specialization in monetary policies and exchange rate policies, international production networks, and uncertainty shocks in emerging markets. He has published several papers in top journals, such as the Journal of Monetary Economics and the Journal of International Economics.

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