题　目：Who Benefits from Trade Wars?

嘉　宾：岑岭 副教授 香港中文大学

主持人：张澄宇 助理教授 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院

时　间：2025年4月23日（周三）13:30-15:00

地　点：上海交通大学 徐汇校区安泰浩然楼306室

内容简介:

Using both the onset of the US-China trade war in 2018 and the most recent Russia-Ukraine War and associated trade tensions, we show a counterintuitive pattern in global international trade. Namely, while the average firm trading with these nations significantly decreases their trade with these jurisdictions following sanctions, government-linked firms show a marked contrast. In particular, government-linked firms actually significantly increase their importing activity following the onset of formal sanctions. The increase is large - roughly 30% (t=4.23), following the shock. We find no increase broadly for government-supplying firms to other countries (even countries in the same regions) at the same time, nor of these same firms in these same regions at other times. In terms of mechanism, government-linked supplier firms are nearly twice as likely to receive tariff exemptions as equivalent firms doing trade in the region who are not government suppliers. More broadly, these effects are increasing in the level of government connection. Using micro-level data, we find that government-supplying firms that recruit more employees with past government work experience also increase their importing activity more – particularly when the past employee worked in a government-contracting role. Lastly, we find evidence that this results in sizable accrued benefits in terms of firm-level profitability, market share gains, and outsized stock returns.

演讲人简介：

Professor Ling Cen is an Associate Professor of Finance at The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK). He is currently the Director of the MSc Programme in Finance and the Associate Director of the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Finance Research Centre.

Professor Cen conducts interdisciplinary studies of finance, operations management, and accounting, focusing on the impact of supply-chain relationships on various aspects of the capital market. He also works extensively in labor and finance, covering topics including workforce equality, labor mobility, and skill identification. His papers have been published in the Journal of Financial Economics, Management Science, The Accounting Review, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Review of Finance, and Production and Operations Management. 

Professor Cen has taught courses for undergraduate, MSc, MBA, and FMBA programs at CUHK. He received the Faculty Teaching Excellence Award in 2021 and 2024 and the Faculty Teaching Merit Award from 2018 to 2023.

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