讲座：Managing Panic Buying with Bayesian Persuasion 发布时间：2023-03-24
题 目：Managing Panic Buying with Bayesian Persuasion
主持人：孙海龙 助理教授 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院
Customer panic buying behaviors have been widely observed in recent years, especially when there is supply disruption risk. We study how a profit-maximizing retailer or a welfare-maximizing government can use information design to effectively influence customer behaviors. We use the Bayesian persuasion framework in which the better-informed retailer or government can send persuasive signals to the customers. We derive the information design which can help manage panic buying and under certain conditions lead to a win-win result for the customers and the retailer. We show that the retailer should send signals to reduce panic buying when the supply chain disruption risk is high; however, when the risk is low, the retailer may send signals to intentionally induce panic buying. Furthermore, we show that when the retailer can jointly optimize inventory order decision and information design, he can use inventory control to reduce the demand loss and use the signaling mechanism to create mild panic to reduce the holding cost. Finally, we show that if the product and information is provided by the welfare-maximizing government, it will order no less inventory than the retailer and design a signaling mechanism to allocate more holding costs to the retailer. The customers will be better off and their utilities can increase by as high as 20%.
Biying Shou is Professor and Associate Head of the Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong. She received her B.E. in Management Information Systems from Tsinghua University and Ph.D. in Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences from Northwestern University. Her main research interests include operations and supply chain management, operations-marketing interface, and network economics. She has published in leading journals including Operations Research, Production and Operations Management, IEEE Transactions on Mobile Computing, etc.