题　目：Index-Based Yield Protection for Smallholder Farmers

嘉　宾：宋京生 R. David Thomas教授 杜克大学

主持人：朱庆华 讲席教授 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院

时　间：2025年7月7日（周一）10:00-11:30

地　点：安泰楼A507室

内容简介：

We investigate a recently developed index-based yield protection policy in emerging economies, designed to shield small farmers from low crop yields. This policy utilizes a predetermined index, such as rainfall, to trigger subsidy payments, thereby sidestepping the costs associated with traditional yield assessments. Our study focuses on a significant oversight in current implementations—the accuracy of this index. We analyze its impact on optimal subsidy designs using a game-theoretic framework that involves local governments and risk-averse farmers. Our findings reveal that increases in index-based subsidies can raise farmer income variance due to potential inaccuracies in yield prediction. This leads to a non-monotonic relationship between subsidy levels and index accuracy. Additionally, while price protection—another common subsidy aimed at offsetting low market prices—is typically seen as a strategic substitute for yield protection, our results suggest they function as strategic complements when index accuracy is low. Surprisingly, tighter governmental budgets may encourage greater investment in index accuracy. These insights challenge conventional wisdom on agricultural subsidies and illustrate complex trade-offs introduced by index inaccuracies, providing valuable guidance for policy design in smallholder contexts.

Paper link:

https://ssrn.com/abstract=4734791

演讲人简介：

Jing-Sheng Jeannette Song is the R. David Thomas Professor of Business Administration and a Professor of Operations Management at the Fuqua School of Business of Duke University. She studies various facets of supply chain management and operations strategy. Her recent research covers topics like supply chain digitization, data-driven operations decision-making, inventory strategies to enhance supply chain resilience, and responsible operations. She has published numerous articles in leading academic journals, such as Management Science, Operations Research, and Manufacturing & Service Operations Management. She has edited the “Research Handbook on Inventory Management” and co-edited the book “Supply Chain Structures: Coordination, Information and Optimization.” She has also co-authored the book “The Art of Matching: Joy of Living and Operations Innovations” (in Chinese). Professor Song is an INFORMS Fellow, an MSOM Fellow, and a former president of MSOM. She is also a Department Editor for Management Science and a former Area/Department Editor for Operations Research, Service Science, and IIE Transactions. Professor Song is also a recipient of the Distinguished Overseas Young Scholar Award （海外杰出青年）by the Natural Science Foundation of China and was named a Chang Jiang Chaired Professor by the Ministry of Education in China (教育部长江学者讲座教授). In 2017, she received the Outstanding Contribution Award from the Chinese Scholars Association for Management Science and Engineering (CSAMSE).

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